Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 992 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 992 BWI 07:35 → DEN 09:18 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2991 BWI 18:10 → DEN 20:13 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 992 Southwest	BWI 07:35	DEN 09:18	10%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 980 Southwest	BWI 09:46	DEN 11:39	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2412 United Flight history →	BWI 08:30	DEN 10:25	14%	3%	0.6%	90%
WN 994 Southwest	BWI 15:05	DEN 17:03	17%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2012 United Flight history →	BWI 16:23	DEN 18:16	18%	4%	0.6%	79%
WN 2991 Southwest	BWI 18:10	DEN 20:13	22%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON