Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 16–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1403 BWI 07:30 → DFW 09:55 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 2775 BWI 14:11 → DFW 16:35 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1403 American Flight history →	BWI 07:30	DFW 09:55	16%	4%	1.2%	85%
F9 1475 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 12:36	DFW 15:06	19%	9%	1.0%	68%
AA 2314 American Flight history →	BWI 11:58	DFW 14:17	21%	8%	1.2%	72%
AA 2775 American	BWI 14:11	DFW 16:35	26%	8%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON