tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:08, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Newark on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601 2h 36m Detroit DTW 10:15 → EWR 11:56DL 2577 5h 48m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → BWI 15:04 → MSP 16:50DL 2357 3h 25m Minneapolis MSP 20:15 → EWR 23:56DL 2846 8h 52m 100% 85%
AmericanDetails → BWI 05:01 → CLT 06:25AA 1708 1h 59m Charlotte CLT 08:24 → EWR 10:14AA 1707 5h 13m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:00 → ATL 07:50DL 2950 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401 6h 21m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → BWI 07:28 → ATL 09:20DL 2579 2h 42m Atlanta ATL 12:02 → EWR 14:16DL 2312 6h 48m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → BWI 17:31 → DTW 19:09DL 2480 2h 31m Detroit DTW 21:40 → EWR 23:25DL 2609 5h 54m 96% 77%
UnitedDetails → BWI 08:16 → ORD 09:30UA 2749 2h 41m Chicago ORD 12:11 → EWR 15:39UA 606 7h 23m 100% 77%
UnitedDetails → BWI 06:00 → IAH 08:16UA 1898 1h 32m Houston IAH 09:48 → EWR 14:27UA 2402 8h 27m 99% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON