Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 408 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 408 BWI 06:40 → FLL 09:25 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2595 BWI 16:00 → FLL 18:41 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 408 Southwest	BWI 06:40	FLL 09:25	10%	2%	2.8%	no record
WN 1001 Southwest	BWI 08:20	FLL 11:05	18%	3%	3.6%	no record
WN 4172 Southwest	BWI 12:25	FLL 15:10	22%	5%	1.6%	no record
WN 1004 Southwest	BWI 18:10	FLL 20:55	23%	5%	1.6%	no record
B6 2995 JetBlue Flight history →	BWI 10:00	FLL 12:48	27%	9%	8.1%	80%
F9 4411 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 13:05	FLL 15:47	30%	9%	3.2%	59%
B6 2595 JetBlue Flight history →	BWI 16:00	FLL 18:41	35%	12%	2.5%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON