Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1005 Southwest	BWI 12:15	GRR 14:03	14%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 3950 Southwest	BWI 20:35	GRR 22:26	21%	4%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Grand Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BWI 06:00 → ATL 07:50DL 2950	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → GRR 12:21DL 2547	6h 21m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	BWI 11:44 → ATL 13:37DL 1592	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 17:01 → GRR 18:58DL 2058	7h 14m	99%	85%
United Details →	BWI 08:16 → ORD 09:30UA 2749	3h 19m Chicago	ORD 12:49 → GRR 14:56UA 2751	6h 40m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	BWI 16:54 → ATL 19:00DL 2799	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 21:20 → GRR 23:17DL 2865	6h 23m	96%	78%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601	1h 11m Detroit	DTW 08:50 → GRR 09:54DL 3500 · flown by SkyWest	3h 46m	95%	78%
American Details →	BWI 07:37 → CLT 09:08AA 2670	3h 04m Charlotte	CLT 12:12 → GRR 14:11AA 1384	6h 34m	96%	75%
United Details →	BWI 17:32 → ORD 18:55UA 590	3h 09m Chicago	ORD 22:04 → GRR 00:00 +1UA 1819	6h 28m	94%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON