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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:08, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601 2h 35m Detroit DTW 10:14 → JFK 11:58DL 2751 5h 50m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:00 → ATL 07:50DL 2950 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380 7h 20m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → BWI 15:04 → MSP 16:50DL 2357 3h 31m Minneapolis MSP 20:21 → JFK 23:52DL 2692 8h 48m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → BWI 12:33 → DTW 14:07DL 1546 3h 56m Detroit DTW 18:03 → JFK 20:04DL 1316 7h 31m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → BWI 05:01 → CLT 06:25AA 1708 2h 13m Charlotte CLT 08:38 → JFK 10:30AA 365 5h 29m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → BWI 14:16 → ATL 16:14DL 2711 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 18:45 → JFK 21:29DL 2378 7h 13m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → BWI 11:44 → ATL 13:37DL 1592 3h 59m Atlanta ATL 17:36 → JFK 20:03DL 2398 8h 19m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → BWI 16:54 → ATL 19:00DL 2799 3h 33m Atlanta ATL 22:33 → JFK 00:46 +1DL 1632 7h 52m 98% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON