tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:20, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 492 Southwest BWI 10:21 LAS 12:14 14% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 1041 Southwest BWI 18:20 LAS 20:39 22% 6% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872 3h 16m Minneapolis MSP 11:10 → LAS 12:26DL 2238 9h 06m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → BWI 06:00 → IAH 08:16UA 1898 3h 39m Houston IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524 10h 13m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601 1h 20m Detroit DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12DL 334 7h 04m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:00 → ATL 07:50DL 2950 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:05DL 466 9h 05m 99% 81%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 06:40 → DAL 08:59WN 11 2h 09m Dallas DAL 11:08 → LAS 12:14WN 523 8h 34m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → BWI 08:30 → DEN 10:25UA 2412 3h 05m Denver DEN 13:30 → LAS 14:38UA 493 9h 08m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → BWI 15:04 → MSP 16:50DL 2357 2h 09m Minneapolis MSP 18:59 → LAS 20:20DL 2246 8h 16m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → BWI 08:16 → ATL 10:13DL 2562 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → LAS 14:50DL 549 9h 34m 99% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BWI 16:23 → DEN 18:16UA 2012 49m Denver DEN 19:05 → LAS 20:08UA 655 6h 45m 71% 51%
AlaskaDetails → BWI 07:03 → SEA 09:53AS 786 47m Seattle SEA 10:40 → LAS 13:01AS 212 8h 58m 57% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON