Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1045 at 06:06 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 1045 BWI 06:06 → LAX 08:34 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 533 BWI 19:20 → LAX 22:02 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1045 Southwest	BWI 06:06	LAX 08:34	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1591 United	BWI 07:54	LAX 10:30	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 533 Southwest	BWI 19:20	LAX 22:02	22%	5%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	1h 26m Minneapolis	MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102	7h 50m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	BWI 15:04 → MSP 16:50DL 2357	1h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → LAX 20:05DL 2122	8h 01m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	BWI 12:33 → DTW 14:07DL 1546	1h 43m Detroit	DTW 15:50 → LAX 17:33DL 883	8h 00m	96%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON