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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Boston, leaving 06:21, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:21 → BOS 08:00DL 5813 · flown by Republic 2h 02m Boston BOS 10:02 → LGA 11:31DL 5744 · flown by Republic 5h 10m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → BWI 07:28 → ATL 09:20DL 2579 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525 7h 22m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601 2h 26m Detroit DTW 10:05 → LGA 11:50DL 2589 5h 42m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:00 → ATL 07:50DL 2950 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371 6h 42m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872 1h 01m Minneapolis MSP 08:55 → LGA 12:36DL 2719 6h 16m 94% 86%
DeltaDetails → BWI 08:16 → ATL 10:13DL 2562 3h 17m Atlanta ATL 13:30 → LGA 15:50DL 460 7h 34m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → BWI 17:31 → DTW 19:09DL 2480 2h 41m Detroit DTW 21:50 → LGA 23:40DL 2603 6h 09m 96% 84%
AmericanDetails → BWI 05:01 → CLT 06:25AA 1708 2h 55m Charlotte CLT 09:20 → LGA 11:15AA 1150 6h 14m 98% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BWI 17:32 → ORD 18:55UA 590 1h 08m Chicago ORD 20:03 → LGA 23:17UA 2827 5h 45m 73% 54%
JetBlueDetails → BWI 16:00 → FLL 18:41B6 2595 1h 19m Fort Lauderdale FLL 20:00 → LGA 22:59B6 572 6h 59m 69% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON