Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 784 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 784 BWI 07:25 → MCO 09:56 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3273 BWI 15:04 → MCO 17:47 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 784 Southwest	BWI 07:25	MCO 09:56	8%	2%	4.7%	no record
WN 1058 Southwest	BWI 09:40	MCO 12:16	11%	3%	5.3%	no record
WN 1057 Southwest	BWI 08:25	MCO 11:01	11%	2%	4.7%	no record
WN 1059 Southwest	BWI 11:25	MCO 13:56	15%	3%	4.6%	no record
WN 957 Southwest	BWI 12:15	MCO 14:46	15%	3%	1.4%	no record
WN 1066 Southwest	BWI 20:20	MCO 22:51	16%	5%	1.3%	no record
WN 945 Southwest	BWI 13:40	MCO 16:11	17%	4%	1.4%	no record
F9 2309 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 21:38	MCO 00:09	17%	8%	3.6%	82%
WN 1065 Southwest	BWI 17:55	MCO 20:31	18%	6%	1.2%	no record
F9 3663 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 09:22	MCO 12:01	19%	6%	6.6%	72%
WN 1062 Southwest	BWI 15:55	MCO 18:26	20%	5%	1.5%	no record
F9 3273 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 15:04	MCO 17:47	21%	9%	3.9%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON