Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:20, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Memphis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	3h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 11:05 → MEM 13:17DL 4063 · flown by SkyWest	7h 57m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601	2h 34m Detroit	DTW 10:13 → MEM 11:15DL 1627	6h 07m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	BWI 07:28 → ATL 09:20DL 2579	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778	6h 04m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:00 → ATL 07:50DL 2950	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → MEM 10:32DL 2937	5h 32m	97%	82%
American Details →	BWI 05:01 → CLT 06:25AA 1708	3h 58m Charlotte	CLT 10:23 → MEM 11:14AA 1790	7h 13m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	BWI 12:33 → DTW 14:07DL 1546	3h 42m Detroit	DTW 17:49 → MEM 18:55DL 3049	7h 22m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	BWI 08:16 → ATL 10:13DL 2562	3h 35m Atlanta	ATL 13:48 → MEM 14:11DL 733	6h 55m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	BWI 11:44 → ATL 13:37DL 1592	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 16:33 → MEM 16:56DL 1681	6h 12m	99%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	BWI 07:28 → ATL 09:20DL 2579	50m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → MEM 10:32DL 2937	4h 04m	71%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON