Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1183 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 1183 BWI 06:00 → MIA 08:46 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 1779 BWI 19:08 → MIA 21:55 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1183 American Flight history →	BWI 06:00	MIA 08:46	16%	3%	1.3%	87%
WN 4480 Southwest	BWI 08:10	MIA 10:59	18%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 550 Southwest	BWI 12:05	MIA 14:49	25%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 4520 Southwest	BWI 17:55	MIA 20:39	26%	7%	0.8%	no record
F9 1665 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 10:49	MIA 13:41	28%	8%	1.6%	67%
AA 1779 American	BWI 19:08	MIA 21:55	35%	9%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON