tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2171 Southwest BWI 11:15 MKE 12:30 8% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 4339 Southwest BWI 00:04 MKE 01:14 10% 3% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Milwaukee on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Milwaukee is 1 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:00 → ATL 07:50DL 2950 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 10:49 → MKE 11:51DL 1151 6h 51m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → BWI 07:28 → ATL 09:20DL 2579 3h 33m Atlanta ATL 12:53 → MKE 13:50DL 1246 7h 22m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872 58m Minneapolis MSP 08:52 → MKE 10:11DL 1781 4h 51m 93% 87%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601 1h 00m Detroit DTW 08:39 → MKE 08:56DL 3102 3h 48m 93% 85%
DeltaDetails → BWI 11:44 → ATL 13:37DL 1592 2h 18m Atlanta ATL 15:55 → MKE 16:59DL 1206 6h 15m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → BWI 14:16 → ATL 16:14DL 2711 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 19:54 → MKE 21:02DL 2388 7h 46m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → BWI 08:16 → ORD 09:30UA 2749 1h 14m Chicago ORD 10:44 → MKE 11:45UA 5234 · flown by SkyWest 4h 29m 93% 74%
DeltaDetails → BWI 17:31 → DTW 19:09DL 2480 51m Detroit DTW 20:00 → MKE 20:20DL 3724 · flown by SkyWest 3h 49m 81% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BWI 17:32 → ORD 18:55UA 590 50m Chicago ORD 19:45 → MKE 20:56UA 4711 · flown by SkyWest 4h 24m 57% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON