Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2872 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 2872 BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 3182 BWI 18:05 → MSP 19:50 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2872 Delta Flight history →	BWI 06:20	MSP 07:54	6%	2%	0.6%	91%
WN 2890 Southwest	BWI 10:10	MSP 11:55	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2357 Delta Flight history →	BWI 15:04	MSP 16:50	9%	4%	0.6%	78%
WN 3182 Southwest	BWI 18:05	MSP 19:50	23%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON