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Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Ontario on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 07:15 → SLC 09:50DL 1176 1h 34m Salt Lake City SLC 11:24 → ONT 12:22DL 1173 8h 07m 95% 87%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:00 → ATL 07:50DL 2950 1h 31m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 7h 38m 94% 79%
DeltaDetails → BWI 11:44 → ATL 13:37DL 1592 3h 28m Atlanta ATL 17:05 → ONT 18:30DL 2891 9h 46m 99% 74%
UnitedDetails → BWI 08:30 → DEN 10:25UA 2412 1h 00m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 7h 17m 86% 73%
AmericanDetails → BWI 07:30 → DFW 09:55AA 1403 2h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:20 → ONT 13:34AA 2635 9h 04m 96% 72%
FrontierDetails → BWI 12:36 → DFW 15:06F9 1475 1h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:51 → ONT 18:19F9 4689 8h 43m 91% 67%
UnitedDetails → BWI 16:23 → DEN 18:16UA 2012 1h 04m Denver DEN 19:20 → ONT 20:42UA 2028 7h 19m 83% 61%
UnitedDetails → BWI 17:32 → ORD 18:55UA 590 1h 23m Chicago ORD 20:18 → ONT 22:51UA 658 8h 19m 81% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON