Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: YX 4596 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–34%.

Safest bet that day YX 4596 BWI 06:00 → ORD 07:25 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4307 BWI 17:03 → ORD 18:22 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4596 Republic	BWI 06:00	ORD 07:25	7%	3%	0.9%	no record
UA 1367 United	BWI 06:22	ORD 07:42	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 2749 United Flight history →	BWI 08:16	ORD 09:30	18%	6%	0.6%	86%
YX 4758 Republic	BWI 18:16	ORD 19:40	19%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 3762 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BWI 11:27	ORD 12:36	20%	4%	0.9%	79%
UA 249 United	BWI 11:49	ORD 13:02	20%	8%	0.6%	no record
MQ 4253 Envoy	BWI 13:43	ORD 14:55	23%	5%	0.9%	no record
UA 1223 United	BWI 18:58	ORD 20:09	32%	8%	0.6%	no record
UA 590 United Flight history →	BWI 17:32	ORD 18:55	33%	8%	0.6%	57%
F9 4307 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 17:03	ORD 18:22	34%	11%	1.6%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON