tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:20, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872 2h 31m Minneapolis MSP 10:25 → PDX 12:21DL 2415 9h 01m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → BWI 15:04 → MSP 16:50DL 2357 1h 44m Minneapolis MSP 18:34 → PDX 20:15DL 2151 8h 11m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:00 → ATL 07:50DL 2950 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206 9h 58m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601 1h 15m Detroit DTW 08:54 → PDX 10:36DL 2171 7h 28m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → BWI 11:44 → ATL 13:37DL 1592 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → PDX 18:49DL 503 10h 05m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → BWI 07:15 → SLC 09:50DL 1176 1h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209 7h 55m 95% 84%
UnitedDetails → BWI 08:30 → DEN 10:25UA 2412 3h 04m Denver DEN 13:29 → PDX 15:15UA 8255 9h 45m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → BWI 06:00 → IAH 08:16UA 1898 1h 14m Houston IAH 09:30 → PDX 11:56UA 740 8h 56m 96% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → BWI 16:54 → ATL 19:00DL 2799 47m Atlanta ATL 19:47 → PDX 21:53DL 691 7h 59m 75% 58%
UnitedDetails → BWI 17:32 → ORD 18:55UA 590 1h 08m Chicago ORD 20:03 → PDX 22:30UA 2243 7h 58m 73% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON