Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1105 at 06:34 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 1105 BWI 06:34 → PHX 08:26 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1898 BWI 19:05 → PHX 21:08 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1105 Southwest	BWI 06:34	PHX 08:26	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1106 Southwest	BWI 14:25	PHX 16:28	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 1898 Southwest	BWI 19:05	PHX 21:08	19%	5%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601	56m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → PHX 09:44DL 1070	6h 36m	93%	81%
American Details →	BWI 05:01 → CLT 06:25AA 1708	1h 16m Charlotte	CLT 07:41 → PHX 09:05AA 1678	7h 04m	95%	79%
Delta Details →	BWI 08:16 → ATL 10:13DL 2562	1h 07m Atlanta	ATL 11:20 → PHX 12:16DL 796	7h 00m	90%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON