Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2407 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 2407 BWI 08:10 → SAN 10:55 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4234 BWI 18:20 → SAN 21:05 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2407 Southwest	BWI 08:10	SAN 10:55	14%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1375 Southwest	BWI 11:50	SAN 14:35	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 4234 Southwest	BWI 18:20	SAN 21:05	31%	6%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	57m Minneapolis	MSP 08:51 → SAN 10:38DL 2121	7h 18m	92%	82%
Delta Details →	BWI 15:04 → MSP 16:50DL 2357	1h 40m Minneapolis	MSP 18:30 → SAN 20:15DL 2145	8h 11m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601	1h 06m Detroit	DTW 08:45 → SAN 10:27DL 492	7h 19m	95%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON