tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 11:44, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching San Antonio on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3446 Southwest BWI 10:19 SAT 12:54 9% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 1153 Southwest BWI 18:30 SAT 21:20 19% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BWI 06:40 → DAL 08:59WN 11 1h 59m Dallas DAL 10:58 → SAT 12:15WN 1488 6h 35m 100% 92%
UnitedDetails → BWI 06:00 → IAH 08:16UA 1898 1h 23m Houston IAH 09:39 → SAT 10:46UA 6201 · flown by Mesa 5h 46m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872 59m Minneapolis MSP 08:53 → SAT 11:46DL 2667 6h 26m 93% 85%
DeltaDetails → BWI 07:28 → ATL 09:20DL 2579 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408 7h 10m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → BWI 08:30 → DEN 10:25UA 2412 3h 19m Denver DEN 13:44 → SAT 16:55UA 1022 9h 25m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:21 → BOS 08:00DL 5813 · flown by Republic 1h 20m Boston BOS 09:20 → SAT 12:44DL 816 7h 23m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → BWI 15:04 → MSP 16:50DL 2357 1h 45m Minneapolis MSP 18:35 → SAT 21:26DL 2773 7h 22m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → BWI 05:01 → CLT 06:25AA 1708 2h 22m Charlotte CLT 08:47 → SAT 10:47AA 2889 6h 46m 98% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BWI 07:30 → DFW 09:55AA 1403 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:42 → SAT 12:02AA 413 5h 32m 74% 58%
UnitedDetails → BWI 17:32 → ORD 18:55UA 590 1h 03m Chicago ORD 19:58 → SAT 22:57UA 1394 6h 25m 69% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON