Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:20, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 786 Alaska Flight history →	BWI 07:03	SEA 09:53	22%	3%	0.8%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	3h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	9h 40m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	BWI 07:28 → ATL 09:20DL 2579	3h 13m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	10h 22m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:00 → ATL 07:50DL 2950	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774	9h 13m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:21 → BOS 08:00DL 5813 · flown by Republic	3h 29m Boston	BOS 11:29 → SEA 14:49DL 332	11h 28m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	BWI 07:15 → SLC 09:50DL 1176	1h 45m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995	8h 34m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	BWI 15:04 → MSP 16:50DL 2357	2h 05m Minneapolis	MSP 18:55 → SEA 20:48DL 881	8h 44m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	BWI 12:33 → DTW 14:07DL 1546	2h 39m Detroit	DTW 16:46 → SEA 18:42DL 944	9h 09m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	BWI 13:50 → BOS 15:48DL 5668 · flown by Republic	3h 02m Boston	BOS 18:50 → SEA 22:25DL 324	11h 35m	99%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BWI 17:32 → ORD 18:55UA 590	1h 06m Chicago	ORD 20:01 → SEA 22:26UA 2211	7h 54m	72%	43%
United Details →	BWI 16:23 → DEN 18:16UA 2012	51m Denver	DEN 19:07 → SEA 20:56UA 2767	7h 33m	73%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON