Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:20, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 2192 United Flight history →	BWI 07:59	SFO 10:58	16%	4%	0.6%	94%
WN 933 Southwest	BWI 09:30	SFO 12:30	19%	6%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	3h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074	9h 49m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:21 → BOS 08:00DL 5813 · flown by Republic	3h 05m Boston	BOS 11:05 → SFO 14:34DL 860	11h 13m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	BWI 15:04 → MSP 16:50DL 2357	2h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 18:50 → SFO 20:57DL 2809	8h 53m	99%	77%
American Details →	BWI 05:01 → CLT 06:25AA 1708	2h 07m Charlotte	CLT 08:32 → SFO 11:03AA 2758	9h 02m	98%	77%
United Details →	BWI 16:23 → DEN 18:16UA 2012	2h 54m Denver	DEN 21:10 → SFO 22:56UA 2123	9h 33m	98%	76%
United Details →	BWI 08:30 → DEN 10:25UA 2412	3h 00m Denver	DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812	9h 39m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:00 → ATL 07:50DL 2950	1h 50m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → SFO 11:33DL 672	8h 33m	96%	75%
Delta Details →	BWI 16:54 → ATL 19:00DL 2799	2h 48m Atlanta	ATL 21:48 → SFO 23:57DL 656	10h 03m	97%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BWI 08:16 → ORD 09:30UA 2749	55m Chicago	ORD 10:25 → SFO 13:14UA 543	7h 58m	68%	50%
United Details →	BWI 17:32 → ORD 18:55UA 590	1h 09m Chicago	ORD 20:04 → SFO 22:57UA 1495	8h 25m	74%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON