Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 942 Southwest	BWI 12:26	SJC 15:16	13%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BWI 07:15 → SLC 09:50DL 1176	1h 50m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254	8h 20m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:00 → ATL 07:50DL 2950	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809	8h 30m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	BWI 14:16 → ATL 16:14DL 2711	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 19:50 → SJC 21:41DL 933	10h 25m	98%	78%
United Details →	BWI 08:30 → DEN 10:25UA 2412	1h 08m Denver	DEN 11:33 → SJC 13:17UA 1256	7h 47m	90%	76%
American Details →	BWI 07:30 → DFW 09:55AA 1403	2h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:02 → SJC 13:49AA 2834	9h 19m	96%	71%
Alaska Details →	BWI 07:03 → SEA 09:53AS 786	3h 45m Seattle	SEA 13:38 → SJC 15:45AS 1673	11h 42m	100%	71%
United Details →	BWI 16:23 → DEN 18:16UA 2012	1h 14m Denver	DEN 19:30 → SJC 21:10UA 2745	7h 47m	87%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BWI 17:32 → ORD 18:55UA 590	1h 03m Chicago	ORD 19:58 → SJC 22:43UA 481	8h 11m	69%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON