tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4510 Southwest BWI 08:20 SJU 12:35 15% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 1164 Southwest BWI 18:05 SJU 22:20 22% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 08:16 → ATL 10:13DL 2562 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 13:00 → SJU 16:39DL 1946 8h 23m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:00 → ATL 07:50DL 2950 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 09:45 → SJU 13:32DL 1882 7h 32m 96% 79%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:21 → BOS 08:00DL 5813 · flown by Republic 51m Boston BOS 08:51 → SJU 12:58DL 1780 6h 37m 94% 78%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601 56m Detroit DTW 08:35 → SJU 13:11DL 1913 7h 03m 93% 78%
DeltaDetails → BWI 14:16 → ATL 16:14DL 2711 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 18:45 → SJU 22:29DL 1861 8h 13m 97% 76%
UnitedDetails → BWI 06:00 → IAH 08:16UA 1898 1h 47m Houston IAH 10:03 → SJU 15:42UA 1192 9h 42m 99% 76%
AmericanDetails → BWI 06:00 → MIA 08:46AA 1183 2h 32m Miami MIA 11:18 → SJU 14:07AA 1613 8h 07m 97% 74%
FrontierDetails → BWI 06:35 → ATL 09:00F9 2633 3h 31m Atlanta ATL 12:31 → SJU 16:22F9 2082 9h 47m 99% 70%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON