Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:08, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 1176 Delta Flight history →	BWI 07:15	SLC 09:50	13%	3%	0.6%	81%
WN 2038 Southwest	BWI 13:45	SLC 16:39	20%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	BWI 16:23 → DEN 18:16UA 2012	2h 49m Denver	DEN 21:05 → SLC 22:44UA 5646 · flown by SkyWest	8h 21m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	BWI 15:04 → MSP 16:50DL 2357	1h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → SLC 20:06DL 2607	7h 02m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:00 → ATL 07:50DL 2950	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387	8h 10m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:21 → BOS 08:00DL 5813 · flown by Republic	3h 15m Boston	BOS 11:15 → SLC 14:23DL 464	10h 02m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	BWI 07:28 → ATL 09:20DL 2579	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	8h 22m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	BWI 08:16 → ATL 10:13DL 2562	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → SLC 15:51DL 423	9h 35m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	BWI 12:33 → DTW 14:07DL 1546	3h 33m Detroit	DTW 17:40 → SLC 19:34DL 765	9h 01m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	BWI 11:44 → ATL 13:37DL 1592	1h 43m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526	7h 34m	97%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	BWI 07:28 → ATL 09:20DL 2579	50m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387	6h 42m	71%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON