Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:20, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1984 Southwest	BWI 12:55	SMF 16:00	16%	4%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	2h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701	8h 49m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	BWI 07:15 → SLC 09:50DL 1176	1h 45m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	8h 01m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	BWI 15:04 → MSP 16:50DL 2357	3h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 20:01 → SMF 21:51DL 574	9h 47m	100%	83%
United Details →	BWI 08:30 → DEN 10:25UA 2412	3h 17m Denver	DEN 13:42 → SMF 15:17UA 662	9h 47m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:00 → ATL 07:50DL 2950	1h 26m Atlanta	ATL 09:16 → SMF 11:00DL 904	8h 00m	94%	79%
Delta Details →	BWI 14:16 → ATL 16:14DL 2711	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 19:26 → SMF 21:27DL 682	10h 11m	98%	73%
American Details →	BWI 07:30 → DFW 09:55AA 1403	1h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:47 → SMF 13:29AA 2078	8h 59m	95%	68%
United Details →	BWI 16:23 → DEN 18:16UA 2012	1h 21m Denver	DEN 19:37 → SMF 21:12UA 2132	7h 49m	89%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BWI 17:32 → ORD 18:55UA 590	58m Chicago	ORD 19:53 → SMF 22:39UA 1828	8h 07m	65%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON