tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 08:30, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BWI 08:30 → DEN 10:25UA 2412 3h 00m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:56UA 1707 9h 26m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → BWI 15:04 → MSP 16:50DL 2357 1h 38m Minneapolis MSP 18:28 → SNA 20:20DL 2107 8h 16m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:00 → ATL 07:50DL 2950 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329 9h 31m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → BWI 07:59 → SFO 10:58UA 2192 1h 27m San Francisco SFO 12:25 → SNA 14:09UA 2441 9h 10m 94% 78%
DeltaDetails → BWI 11:44 → ATL 13:37DL 1592 3h 53m Atlanta ATL 17:30 → SNA 19:00DL 2012 10h 16m 99% 76%
AmericanDetails → BWI 07:30 → DFW 09:55AA 1403 2h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:26 → SNA 13:42AA 2465 9h 12m 96% 75%
AlaskaDetails → BWI 07:03 → SEA 09:53AS 786 3h 56m Seattle SEA 13:49 → SNA 16:41AS 773 12h 38m 100% 75%
DeltaDetails → BWI 16:54 → ATL 19:00DL 2799 1h 59m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SNA 22:25DL 826 8h 31m 94% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON