Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1173 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–17%.

Safest bet that day WN 1173 BWI 07:05 → TPA 09:40 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 855 BWI 18:05 → TPA 20:40 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1173 Southwest	BWI 07:05	TPA 09:40	6%	2%	2.4%	no record
WN 1178 Southwest	BWI 10:25	TPA 13:00	12%	3%	1.1%	no record
F9 2925 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 08:12	TPA 10:56	16%	5%	2.6%	73%
WN 4173 Southwest	BWI 15:15	TPA 17:50	16%	5%	1.1%	no record
WN 855 Southwest	BWI 18:05	TPA 20:40	17%	6%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON