Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 4621 at 18:00, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4621 Southwest	BWI 18:00	TYS 19:45	21%	4%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Knoxville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BWI 08:16 → ATL 10:13DL 2562	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 13:44 → TYS 14:46DL 1148	6h 30m	99%	85%
American Details →	BWI 05:01 → CLT 06:25AA 1708	2h 50m Charlotte	CLT 09:15 → TYS 10:38AA 5950 · flown by Piedmont	5h 37m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:00 → ATL 07:50DL 2950	1h 58m Atlanta	ATL 09:48 → TYS 10:49DL 1817	4h 49m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	BWI 11:44 → ATL 13:37DL 1592	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 15:47 → TYS 16:53DL 2571	5h 09m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601	1h 01m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → TYS 10:22DL 5347 · flown by Endeavor	4h 18m	94%	79%
Delta Details →	BWI 07:28 → ATL 09:20DL 2579	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → TYS 13:16DL 4724 · flown by Endeavor	5h 51m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	BWI 16:54 → ATL 19:00DL 2799	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 21:27 → TYS 22:29DL 1437	5h 35m	96%	78%
Delta Details →	BWI 14:16 → ATL 16:14DL 2711	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 19:06 → TYS 20:08DL 5203 · flown by Endeavor	5h 55m	97%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON