Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 951 at 09:00, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 951 Southwest	BWI 09:00	VPS 10:32	7%	1%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Valparaiso is 1 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	2h 41m Minneapolis	MSP 10:35 → VPS 13:13DL 2462	7h 53m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:00 → ATL 07:50DL 2950	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → VPS 10:29DL 2048	5h 29m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	BWI 08:16 → ATL 10:13DL 2562	3h 47m Atlanta	ATL 14:00 → VPS 14:11DL 2832	6h 55m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	BWI 14:16 → ATL 16:14DL 2711	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 18:28 → VPS 18:42DL 2803	5h 26m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	BWI 11:44 → ATL 13:37DL 1592	2h 12m Atlanta	ATL 15:49 → VPS 16:05DL 2170	5h 21m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	BWI 16:54 → ATL 19:00DL 2799	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 22:50 → VPS 23:03DL 3097	7h 09m	98%	80%
American Details →	BWI 11:58 → DFW 14:17AA 2314	2h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:37 → VPS 18:38AA 2673	7h 40m	94%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON