Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 644 Delta	BZN 12:07	ATL 17:53	15%	5%	1.7%	no record
DL 406 Delta Flight history →	BZN 14:30	ATL 20:27	18%	7%	1.7%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 2 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678	1h 23m Minneapolis	MSP 10:34 → ATL 14:06DL 1046	6h 06m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	BZN 06:00 → SLC 07:15DL 491	2h 40m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:55 → ATL 15:39DL 835	7h 39m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	BZN 13:00 → SLC 14:22DL 1971	3h 33m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:55 → ATL 23:58DL 905	8h 58m	99%	80%
United Details →	BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362	1h 53m Denver	DEN 10:17 → ATL 15:23UA 2806	6h 53m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	BZN 13:34 → MSP 16:56DL 2946	1h 41m Minneapolis	MSP 18:37 → ATL 22:28DL 1026	6h 54m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	BZN 08:25 → SEA 09:28DL 4092 · flown by SkyWest	2h 31m Seattle	SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554	9h 39m	97%	72%
American Details →	BZN 06:31 → DFW 10:35AA 817	2h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:25 → ATL 16:43AA 2398	8h 12m	100%	68%
United Details →	BZN 12:48 → ORD 16:57UA 2202	1h 23m Chicago	ORD 18:20 → ATL 21:40UA 1398	6h 52m	88%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON