tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via LAX, leaving 17:26, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Boston on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boston is 2 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BZN 17:26 → LAX 19:07UA 741 2h 11m Los Angeles LAX 21:18 → BOS 05:46 +1UA 2210 10h 20m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → SLC 07:15DL 491 2h 35m Salt Lake City SLC 09:50 → BOS 16:36DL 657 8h 36m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → BZN 13:34 → MSP 16:56DL 2946 3h 14m Minneapolis MSP 20:10 → BOS 23:56DL 2614 8h 22m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678 54m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → BOS 13:51DL 2655 5h 51m 94% 82%
UnitedDetails → BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362 1h 16m Denver DEN 09:40 → BOS 15:44UA 1232 7h 14m 95% 79%
DeltaDetails → BZN 14:30 → ATL 20:27DL 406 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → BOS 01:20 +1DL 865 8h 50m 96% 78%
DeltaDetails → BZN 13:00 → SLC 14:22DL 1971 2h 58m Salt Lake City SLC 17:20 → BOS 23:52DL 702 8h 52m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → BZN 14:26 → DEN 16:20UA 2258 1h 20m Denver DEN 17:40 → BOS 23:44UA 1356 7h 18m 89% 68%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON