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Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 13:34, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Charlotte on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 2 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BZN 13:34 → MSP 16:56DL 2946 3h 18m Minneapolis MSP 20:14 → CLT 23:44DL 2929 8h 10m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678 3h 44m Minneapolis MSP 12:55 → CLT 16:27DL 2819 8h 27m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → SLC 07:15DL 491 3h 15m Salt Lake City SLC 10:30 → CLT 16:27DL 2070 8h 27m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362 1h 29m Denver DEN 09:53 → CLT 15:17UA 2231 6h 47m 95% 79%
DeltaDetails → BZN 14:30 → ATL 20:27DL 406 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177 7h 28m 96% 78%
AmericanDetails → BZN 13:49 → ORD 17:53AA 1501 3h 01m Chicago ORD 20:54 → CLT 23:59AA 2976 8h 10m 96% 70%
AmericanDetails → BZN 06:31 → DFW 10:35AA 817 1h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:55 → CLT 15:36AA 1696 7h 05m 97% 68%
UnitedDetails → BZN 14:26 → DEN 16:20UA 2258 1h 25m Denver DEN 17:45 → CLT 23:08UA 616 6h 42m 90% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BZN 13:49 → ORD 17:53AA 1501 55m Chicago ORD 18:48 → CLT 22:00AA 689 6h 11m 72% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON