Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1362 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 1362 BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest UA 431 BZN 16:26 → DEN 18:28 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1362 United Flight history →	BZN 06:30	DEN 08:24	5%	2%	0.6%	97%
OO 4654 SkyWest	BZN 10:38	DEN 12:47	6%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 4885 Southwest	BZN 08:14	DEN 10:13	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1800 Southwest	BZN 11:24	DEN 13:13	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2258 United Flight history →	BZN 14:26	DEN 16:20	17%	5%	0.6%	82%
WN 3898 Southwest	BZN 14:34	DEN 16:28	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 431 United Flight history →	BZN 16:26	DEN 18:28	22%	6%	0.7%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON