Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: AA 817 at 06:31 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 817 American Flight history →	BZN 06:31	DFW 10:35	8%	3%	1.0%	81%
AA 952 American Flight history →	BZN 12:01	DFW 16:01	19%	7%	1.1%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678	1h 49m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → DFW 13:31DL 2970	6h 31m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	BZN 06:00 → SLC 07:15DL 491	2h 35m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:50 → DFW 13:30DL 2800	6h 30m	99%	85%
United Details →	BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362	1h 13m Denver	DEN 09:37 → DFW 12:40UA 1350	5h 10m	95%	82%
United Details →	BZN 16:26 → DEN 18:28UA 431	2h 25m Denver	DEN 20:53 → DFW 23:59UA 2239	6h 33m	96%	73%
Delta Details →	BZN 13:34 → MSP 16:56DL 2946	2h 54m Minneapolis	MSP 19:50 → DFW 22:21DL 2967	7h 47m	99%	72%
Alaska Details →	BZN 13:50 → SAN 15:34AS 2050 · flown by Horizon	2h 14m San Diego	SAN 17:48 → DFW 22:40AS 689	7h 50m	96%	69%
Delta Details →	BZN 13:00 → SLC 14:22DL 1971	3h 18m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:40 → DFW 21:23DL 2796	7h 23m	99%	66%
Delta Details →	BZN 14:30 → ATL 20:27DL 406	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → DFW 23:59DL 818	8h 29m	96%	65%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	BZN 10:26 → SEA 11:23AS 2141 · flown by Horizon	50m Seattle	SEA 12:13 → DFW 18:21AS 549	6h 55m	67%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON