Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 348 at 11:23, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 348 United Flight history →	BZN 11:23	EWR 17:45	26%	13%	1.3%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 2 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BZN 13:34 → MSP 16:56DL 2946	3h 19m Minneapolis	MSP 20:15 → EWR 23:56DL 2846	8h 22m	99%	82%
United Details →	BZN 16:17 → SFO 17:50UA 1702	3h 25m San Francisco	SFO 21:15 → EWR 05:51 +1UA 698	11h 34m	96%	81%
United Details →	BZN 17:26 → LAX 19:07UA 741	1h 53m Los Angeles	LAX 21:00 → EWR 05:18 +1UA 2397	9h 52m	93%	77%
United Details →	BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362	1h 39m Denver	DEN 10:03 → EWR 15:59UA 2381	7h 29m	97%	75%
Delta Details →	BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678	3h 59m Minneapolis	MSP 13:10 → EWR 16:53DL 2866	8h 53m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	BZN 13:00 → SLC 14:22DL 1971	3h 18m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:40 → EWR 23:54DL 2038	8h 54m	99%	72%
United Details →	BZN 12:48 → ORD 16:57UA 2202	3h 10m Chicago	ORD 20:07 → EWR 23:39UA 759	8h 51m	96%	72%
United Details →	BZN 14:26 → DEN 16:20UA 2258	1h 30m Denver	DEN 17:50 → EWR 23:44UA 2613	7h 18m	91%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON