tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 1228 at 12:55, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1228 United BZN 12:55 IAH 17:30 12% 5% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678 1h 54m Minneapolis MSP 11:05 → IAH 13:58DL 2673 6h 58m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → SLC 07:15DL 491 2h 19m Salt Lake City SLC 09:34 → IAH 13:38DL 1532 6h 38m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → BZN 13:34 → MSP 16:56DL 2946 1h 44m Minneapolis MSP 18:40 → IAH 21:35DL 2683 7h 01m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362 1h 45m Denver DEN 10:09 → IAH 13:45UA 2030 6h 15m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → BZN 13:00 → SLC 14:22DL 1971 3h 23m Salt Lake City SLC 17:45 → IAH 21:50DL 2514 7h 50m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → BZN 14:26 → DEN 16:20UA 2258 3h 15m Denver DEN 19:35 → IAH 23:06UA 475 7h 40m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → BZN 14:30 → ATL 20:27DL 406 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601 8h 27m 96% 75%
UnitedDetails → BZN 16:26 → DEN 18:28UA 431 2h 00m Denver DEN 20:28 → IAH 23:59UA 2419 6h 33m 93% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON