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Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 2 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678 3h 43m Minneapolis MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661 9h 00m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → BZN 13:34 → MSP 16:56DL 2946 3h 25m Minneapolis MSP 20:21 → JFK 23:52DL 2692 8h 18m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → SLC 07:15DL 491 2h 44m Salt Lake City SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792 8h 47m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → BZN 13:00 → SLC 14:22DL 1971 2h 48m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → JFK 23:47DL 697 8h 47m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → BZN 08:25 → SEA 09:28DL 4092 · flown by SkyWest 2h 06m Seattle SEA 11:34 → JFK 20:15DL 415 9h 50m 96% 75%
AlaskaDetails → BZN 17:51 → SFO 19:25AS 2063 · flown by Horizon 2h 51m San Francisco SFO 22:16 → JFK 06:24 +1AS 40 10h 33m 96% 73%
DeltaDetails → BZN 14:30 → ATL 20:27DL 406 2h 06m Atlanta ATL 22:33 → JFK 00:46 +1DL 1632 8h 16m 95% 72%
AmericanDetails → BZN 06:31 → DFW 10:35AA 817 2h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:11 → JFK 17:56AA 1058 9h 25m 99% 68%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON