tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 956 Southwest BZN 09:39 LAS 10:59 6% 2% 0.6% no record
G4 4113 Allegiant BZN 04:46 LAS 06:01 8% 7% 1.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 1 h behind Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → SLC 07:15DL 491 1h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 08:25 → LAS 08:50DL 1698 3h 50m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678 1h 59m Minneapolis MSP 11:10 → LAS 12:26DL 2238 7h 26m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362 2h 58m Denver DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526 6h 54m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → BZN 13:34 → MSP 16:56DL 2946 2h 03m Minneapolis MSP 18:59 → LAS 20:20DL 2246 7h 46m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → BZN 18:00 → SLC 19:24DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 2h 06m Salt Lake City SLC 21:30 → LAS 21:58DL 1662 4h 58m 97% 75%
UnitedDetails → BZN 14:26 → DEN 16:20UA 2258 2h 45m Denver DEN 19:05 → LAS 20:08UA 655 6h 42m 96% 69%
DeltaDetails → BZN 13:00 → SLC 14:22DL 1971 1h 13m Salt Lake City SLC 15:35 → LAS 16:02DL 1672 4h 02m 93% 69%
UnitedDetails → BZN 16:17 → SFO 17:50UA 1702 1h 47m San Francisco SFO 19:37 → LAS 21:27UA 1995 6h 10m 87% 68%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON