tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 741 at 17:26, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 741 United Flight history → BZN 17:26 LAX 19:07 19% 6% 0.8% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 1 h behind Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678 2h 19m Minneapolis MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119 8h 23m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → BZN 08:25 → SEA 09:28DL 4092 · flown by SkyWest 3h 07m Seattle SEA 12:35 → LAX 15:23DL 2914 7h 58m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362 1h 38m Denver DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405 6h 04m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → SLC 07:15DL 491 2h 30m Salt Lake City SLC 09:45 → LAX 10:44DL 1095 5h 44m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → BZN 13:34 → MSP 16:56DL 2946 1h 14m Minneapolis MSP 18:10 → LAX 20:05DL 2122 7h 31m 94% 81%
DeltaDetails → BZN 18:00 → SLC 19:24DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 1h 41m Salt Lake City SLC 21:05 → LAX 22:10DL 1142 5h 10m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → BZN 13:00 → SLC 14:22DL 1971 2h 48m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → LAX 18:07DL 1161 6h 07m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → BZN 16:17 → SFO 17:50UA 1702 3h 37m San Francisco SFO 21:27 → LAX 22:49UA 1079 7h 32m 96% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → BZN 16:04 → PDX 16:50AS 2021 · flown by Horizon 47m Portland PDX 17:37 → LAX 20:09AS 278 5h 05m 73% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON