tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 13:34, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 2 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BZN 13:34 → MSP 16:56DL 2946 3h 04m Minneapolis MSP 20:00 → LGA 23:44DL 2733 8h 10m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678 3h 51m Minneapolis MSP 13:02 → LGA 16:44DL 2756 8h 44m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362 1h 25m Denver DEN 09:49 → LGA 15:46UA 2446 7h 16m 95% 81%
UnitedDetails → BZN 12:48 → ORD 16:57UA 2202 3h 06m Chicago ORD 20:03 → LGA 23:17UA 2827 8h 29m 96% 71%
UnitedDetails → BZN 14:26 → DEN 16:20UA 2258 1h 00m Denver DEN 17:20 → LGA 23:13UA 2033 6h 47m 83% 68%
AmericanDetails → BZN 12:01 → DFW 16:01AA 952 2h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:57 → LGA 23:37AA 1375 9h 36m 98% 67%
AmericanDetails → BZN 13:49 → ORD 17:53AA 1501 2h 17m Chicago ORD 20:10 → LGA 23:35AA 1166 7h 46m 91% 67%
AmericanDetails → BZN 06:31 → DFW 10:35AA 817 2h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:05 → LGA 17:45AA 672 9h 14m 99% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON