Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 1678 Delta Flight history →	BZN 06:00	MSP 09:11	5%	2%	0.6%	95%
DL 2946 Delta Flight history →	BZN 13:34	MSP 16:56	9%	4%	0.6%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BZN 06:00 → SLC 07:15DL 491	1h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 08:30 → MSP 11:58DL 2916	4h 58m	98%	90%
United Details →	BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362	1h 16m Denver	DEN 09:40 → MSP 12:40UA 397	5h 10m	95%	85%
Delta Details →	BZN 13:00 → SLC 14:22DL 1971	3h 03m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → MSP 20:58DL 2935	6h 58m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	BZN 14:30 → ATL 20:27DL 406	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → MSP 00:39 +1DL 1310	9h 09m	96%	82%
United Details →	BZN 16:26 → DEN 18:28UA 431	2h 26m Denver	DEN 20:54 → MSP 23:59UA 667	6h 33m	96%	81%
United Details →	BZN 14:26 → DEN 16:20UA 2258	1h 35m Denver	DEN 17:55 → MSP 21:00UA 2076	5h 34m	93%	75%
United Details →	BZN 12:48 → ORD 16:57UA 2202	3h 00m Chicago	ORD 19:57 → MSP 21:41UA 2005	7h 53m	96%	72%
American Details →	BZN 06:31 → DFW 10:35AA 817	1h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:58 → MSP 14:32AA 1668	7h 01m	98%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON