tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 348 at 11:23, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 348 United Flight history → BZN 11:23 EWR 17:45 26% 11% 1.3% 77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 2 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BZN 13:34 → MSP 16:56DL 2946 3h 04m Minneapolis MSP 20:00 → LGA 23:44DL 2733 8h 10m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678 3h 51m Minneapolis MSP 13:02 → LGA 16:44DL 2756 8h 44m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → BZN 16:17 → SFO 17:50UA 1702 3h 25m San Francisco SFO 21:15 → EWR 05:51 +1UA 698 11h 34m 96% 82%
UnitedDetails → BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362 1h 25m Denver DEN 09:49 → LGA 15:46UA 2446 7h 16m 95% 81%
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → SLC 07:15DL 491 2h 44m Salt Lake City SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792 8h 47m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → BZN 13:00 → SLC 14:22DL 1971 2h 48m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → JFK 23:47DL 697 8h 47m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → BZN 17:26 → LAX 19:07UA 741 1h 53m Los Angeles LAX 21:00 → EWR 05:18 +1UA 2397 9h 52m 93% 79%
DeltaDetails → BZN 08:25 → SEA 09:28DL 4092 · flown by SkyWest 2h 06m Seattle SEA 11:34 → JFK 20:15DL 415 9h 50m 96% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON