Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1069 at 08:06 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 1069 BZN 08:06 → ORD 11:52 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1501 BZN 13:49 → ORD 17:53 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1069 United	BZN 08:06	ORD 11:52	11%	4%	0.8%	no record
UA 2202 United Flight history →	BZN 12:48	ORD 16:57	20%	6%	0.8%	78%
AA 1501 American Flight history →	BZN 13:49	ORD 17:53	27%	7%	0.9%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON