tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 2021 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record BZN 16:04 PDX 16:50 16% 5% 2.0% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h behind Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678 1h 14m Minneapolis MSP 10:25 → PDX 12:21DL 2415 7h 21m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → SLC 07:15DL 491 4h 00m Salt Lake City SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209 7h 10m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → BZN 13:34 → MSP 16:56DL 2946 1h 38m Minneapolis MSP 18:34 → PDX 20:15DL 2151 7h 41m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → BZN 18:00 → SLC 19:24DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 2h 21m Salt Lake City SLC 21:45 → PDX 22:38DL 1373 5h 38m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362 2h 52m Denver DEN 11:16 → PDX 12:58UA 644 7h 28m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → BZN 16:17 → SFO 17:50UA 1702 3h 00m San Francisco SFO 20:50 → PDX 22:48UA 2413 7h 31m 95% 79%
DeltaDetails → BZN 15:27 → SEA 16:28DL 4104 · flown by SkyWest 2h 25m Seattle SEA 18:53 → PDX 19:55DL 3997 · flown by SkyWest 5h 28m 98% 77%
AlaskaDetails → BZN 13:50 → SAN 15:34AS 2050 · flown by Horizon 2h 24m San Diego SAN 17:58 → PDX 20:31AS 1392 7h 41m 96% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BZN 16:17 → SFO 17:50UA 1702 1h 06m San Francisco SFO 18:56 → PDX 20:43UA 1227 5h 26m 71% 55%
AlaskaDetails → BZN 10:26 → SEA 11:23AS 2141 · flown by Horizon 51m Seattle SEA 12:14 → PDX 13:08AS 488 3h 42m 69% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON