tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 1 h behind Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → SLC 07:15DL 491 50m Salt Lake City SLC 08:05 → PHX 08:44DL 1447 3h 44m 91% 83%
DeltaDetails → BZN 18:00 → SLC 19:24DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 2h 06m Salt Lake City SLC 21:30 → PHX 22:11DL 1496 5h 11m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362 3h 01m Denver DEN 11:25 → PHX 12:25UA 1686 6h 55m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → BZN 13:34 → MSP 16:56DL 2946 1h 52m Minneapolis MSP 18:48 → PHX 20:06DL 2297 7h 32m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → BZN 08:25 → SEA 09:28DL 4092 · flown by SkyWest 2h 17m Seattle SEA 11:45 → PHX 14:59DL 2449 7h 34m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → BZN 15:27 → SEA 16:28DL 4104 · flown by SkyWest 2h 02m Seattle SEA 18:30 → PHX 21:29DL 2698 7h 02m 96% 77%
UnitedDetails → BZN 14:26 → DEN 16:20UA 2258 2h 46m Denver DEN 19:06 → PHX 20:01UA 1507 6h 35m 96% 74%
AlaskaDetails → BZN 10:26 → SEA 11:23AS 2141 · flown by Horizon 2h 21m Seattle SEA 13:44 → PHX 16:45AS 700 7h 19m 99% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BZN 16:17 → SFO 17:50UA 1702 1h 04m San Francisco SFO 18:54 → PHX 20:51UA 1375 5h 34m 70% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON