tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, OO 3080 at 13:03, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 3080 SkyWest BZN 13:03 SAN 14:46 24% 9% 1.2% no record
AS 2050 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record BZN 13:50 SAN 15:34 33% 4% 0.0% 67%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 1 h behind Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678 2h 18m Minneapolis MSP 11:29 → SAN 13:25DL 2125 8h 25m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → SLC 07:15DL 491 3h 55m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 7h 08m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → BZN 18:00 → SLC 19:24DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 1h 51m Salt Lake City SLC 21:15 → SAN 22:15DL 1202 5h 15m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → BZN 13:34 → MSP 16:56DL 2946 1h 34m Minneapolis MSP 18:30 → SAN 20:15DL 2145 7h 41m 96% 79%
UnitedDetails → BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362 2h 51m Denver DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940 7h 11m 97% 74%
DeltaDetails → BZN 15:27 → SEA 16:28DL 4104 · flown by SkyWest 3h 12m Seattle SEA 19:40 → SAN 22:34DL 2672 8h 07m 98% 73%
UnitedDetails → BZN 16:17 → SFO 17:50UA 1702 3h 05m San Francisco SFO 20:55 → SAN 22:32UA 442 7h 15m 95% 71%
UnitedDetails → BZN 14:26 → DEN 16:20UA 2258 3h 00m Denver DEN 19:20 → SAN 20:46UA 540 7h 20m 96% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BZN 16:17 → SFO 17:50UA 1702 56m San Francisco SFO 18:46 → SAN 20:22UA 1577 5h 05m 66% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON