Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 4092 at 08:25 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21%.

Safest bet that day DL 4092 BZN 08:25 → SEA 09:28 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 4104 BZN 15:27 → SEA 16:28 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 4092 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BZN 08:25	SEA 09:28	10%	4%	1.0%	91%
DL 4104 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BZN 15:27	SEA 16:28	21%	7%	0.8%	88%
AS 2141 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BZN 10:26	SEA 11:23	14%	2%	0.6%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON