Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 1702 at 16:17, with a 31% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1702 United Flight history →	BZN 16:17	SFO 17:50	31%	14%	0.7%	56%
AS 2063 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BZN 17:51	SFO 19:25	82%	43%	5.8%	18%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h behind Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678	1h 49m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074	8h 09m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	BZN 18:00 → SLC 19:24DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest	2h 54m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:18 → SFO 23:20DL 1091	6h 20m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	BZN 06:00 → SLC 07:15DL 491	3h 50m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:05 → SFO 12:07DL 902	7h 07m	99%	77%
United Details →	BZN 17:26 → LAX 19:07UA 741	3h 27m Los Angeles	LAX 22:34 → SFO 00:04 +1UA 1047	7h 38m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	BZN 13:34 → MSP 16:56DL 2946	1h 54m Minneapolis	MSP 18:50 → SFO 20:57DL 2809	8h 23m	97%	75%
United Details →	BZN 16:26 → DEN 18:28UA 431	2h 42m Denver	DEN 21:10 → SFO 22:56UA 2123	7h 30m	96%	75%
United Details →	BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362	2h 56m Denver	DEN 11:20 → SFO 13:04UA 1561	7h 34m	97%	75%
Alaska Details →	BZN 16:04 → PDX 16:50AS 2021 · flown by Horizon	2h 45m Portland	PDX 19:35 → SFO 21:24AS 697	6h 20m	98%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	BZN 13:50 → SAN 15:34AS 2050 · flown by Horizon	49m San Diego	SAN 16:23 → SFO 18:05AS 3482 · flown by SkyWest	5h 15m	53%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON