Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5603 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CAE 05:20	DCA 07:09	8%	3%	1.7%	88%
AA 5107 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CAE 10:39	DCA 12:19	15%	6%	1.9%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	CAE 05:00 → CLT 06:09AA 5855 · flown by Piedmont	1h 42m Charlotte	CLT 07:51 → DCA 09:32AA 1581	4h 32m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	CAE 06:00 → ATL 07:07DL 3038	3h 53m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DCA 12:52DL 1798	6h 52m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	CAE 07:01 → LGA 08:59DL 5131 · flown by Endeavor	2h 41m New York	LGA 11:40 → DCA 13:05DL 5749 · flown by Republic	6h 04m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	CAE 07:26 → ATL 08:39DL 3061	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380	4h 01m	91%	80%
Delta Details →	CAE 13:47 → ATL 14:56DL 2944	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 18:55 → DCA 20:47DL 325	7h 00m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	CAE 11:58 → ATL 13:10DL 5091 · flown by Endeavor	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 15:35 → DCA 17:30DL 850	5h 32m	100%	77%
United Details →	CAE 11:03 → ORD 12:25UA 4189 · flown by GoJet	1h 35m Chicago	ORD 14:00 → DCA 17:12UA 1314	6h 09m	97%	75%
American Details →	CAE 16:10 → CLT 17:27AA 6046 · flown by Piedmont	3h 05m Charlotte	CLT 20:32 → DCA 22:10AA 2432	6h 00m	94%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	CAE 12:31 → CLT 13:45AA 5998 · flown by Piedmont	49m Charlotte	CLT 14:34 → DCA 16:13AA 2839	3h 42m	74%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON